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Creators/Authors contains: "Gettelman, Andrew"

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  1. This dataset originates from a new CESM2 CAM6 perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) designed to explore climate and hydroclimate dynamics under a wide range of sea surface temperature (SST) conditions. The SST varies from 4 degrees Celsius colder to 16 degrees Celsius warmer than preindustrial levels, encompassing a broad spectrum of mean temperatures spanning the past 65 million years. This dataset offers valuable insights into climate and hydroclimate responses, as well as weather and climate extremes under diverse conditions.The dataset includes results from nine PPE simulations with different SST scenarios: preindustrial (PREI), 4K cooler (M04K), and 4K, 8K, 12K, and 16K warmer (P04K to P16K). For SSTs exceeding 8K warming, sea ice was removed to improve numerical stability. Each PPE set consists of 250 ensemble members, with 45 parameters related to microphysics, convection, turbulence, and aerosols perturbed using Latin Hypercube Sampling. An additional simulation with default parameter settings brings the total to 251 simulations, each running for five years using CAM6.3 (https://github.com/ESCOMP/CAM/tree/cam6_3_026; with additional paleo modifications).Post-processing converted the data into compressed NetCDF-4 format. All 251 runs were concatenated using ncecat to minimize the number of files. For example, the following file contains monthly surface temperature data from the preindustrial PPE: f.c6.F1850.f19_f19.paleo_ppe.sst_prei.ens251/atm/proc/tseries/month_1/f.c6.F1850.f19_f19.paleo_ppe.sst_prei.ens251.cam.h0.TS.000101-000512.ncA detailed variable list [https://rda.ucar.edu/OS/web/datasets/d651038/docs/detailed_vars.txt] can be found in the Documentation Tab.Parameter values are provided in the PPE Parameter File. More details can be found in the paper: Zhu et al. (2025). Investigating the State Dependence of Cloud Feedback Using a Suite of Perturbed Parameter Ensembles, Journal of Climate. 
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  2. Abstract The state dependence of cloud feedback—its variation with the mean state climate—has been found in many paleoclimate and contemporary climate simulations. Previous results have shown inconsistencies in the sign, magnitude, and underlying mechanisms of state dependence. To address this, we utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) approach with fixed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6. Our suites of PPEs span a wide range of global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs), with spatially uniform SST perturbations of −4, 0, 4, 8, 12, and 16 K from the preindustrial. The results reveal a nonmonotonic variation with GMSTs: Cloud feedback increases under both cooler and warmer-than-preindustrial conditions, with a rise of ∼0.1 W m−2K−1under a 4-K colder climate and ∼0.4 W m−2K−1under a 12-K warmer climate. This complexity arises from differing cloud feedback responses in high and low latitudes. In high latitudes, cloud feedback consistently rises with warming, likely driven by a moist adiabatic mechanism that influences cloud liquid water. The low-latitude feedback increases under both cooler and warmer conditions, likely influenced by changes in the lower-tropospheric stability. This stability shift is tied to nonlinearity in thermodynamic responses, particularly in the tropical latent heating, alongside potential state-dependent changes in tropical circulations. Under warmer-than-preindustrial conditions, the increase in cloud feedback with warming is negatively correlated with its preindustrial value. Our PPE approach takes the model parameter uncertainty into account and emphasizes the critical role of state dependence in understanding past and predicting future climates. Significance StatementThis study focuses on how cloud feedback—one of the most uncertain aspects of climate change—varies as global temperatures rise. We found that the cloud feedback decreases at first with warming and then increases, showing significant variation. This complexity stems from nonlinear thermodynamics, such as the Clapeyron–Clausius relationship, which describes how temperature affects moisture in the atmosphere. Our results indicate that the cloud feedback depends on the level of global warming, which is a significant factor rooted in fundamental physics. Recognizing this dependence is important for studies that aim to interpret past climates and predict future climate changes. 
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  3. The simulation of ice sheet-climate interaction such as surface massbalance fluxes are sensitive to model grid resolution. Here we simulatethe multicentury evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and itsinteraction with the climate using the Community Earth System Modelversion 2.2 (CESM2.2) including an interactive GrIS component (theCommunity Ice Sheet Model v2.1 [CISM2.1]) under an idealized warmingscenario (atmospheric CO2 increases by 1% yr−1 until quadrupling thepre-industrial level and then is held fixed). A variable-resolution (VR)grid with 1/4◦ regional refinement over broader Arctic and 1◦ resolutionelsewhere is applied to the atmosphere and land components, and theresults are compared to conventional 1◦ lat-lon grid simulations toinvestigate the impact of grid refinement. An acceleration of GrIS massloss is found at around year 110, caused by rapidly increasing surfacemelt as the ablation area expands with associated albedo feedback andincreased turbulent fluxes. Compared to the 1◦ runs, the VR run featuresslower melt increase, especially over Western and Northern Greenland,which slope gently towards the peripheries. This difference patternoriginates primarily from the weaker albedo feedback in the VR run,complemented by its smaller cloud longwave radiation. The steeper VRGreenland surface topography favors slower ablation zone expansion, thusleading to its weaker albedo feedback. The sea level rise contributionfrom the GrIS in the VR run is 53 mm by year 150 and 831 mm by year 350,approximately 40% and 20% smaller than the 1◦ runs, respectively. 
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  4. Abstract Global Storm Resolving Models (GSRMs) provide a way to understand weather and climate events across scales for better‐informed climate impacts. In this work, we apply the recently developed and validated CAM (Community Atmosphere Model)—MPAS (Model for Prediction Across Scales) modeling framework, based on the open‐source Community Earth System Model (CESM2), to examine the tropical convection features at the storm resolving scale over the Maritime Continent region at 3 km horizontal spacing. We target two global numerical experiments during the winter season of 2018 for comparison with observation in the region. We focus on the investigation of the representations of the convective systems, precipitation statistics, and tropical cyclone behaviors. We found that regional‐refined experiments show more accurate precipitation distributions, diurnal cycles, and better agreement with observations for tropical cyclone features in terms of intensity and strength statistics. We expect the exploration of this work will further advance the development and use of the storm‐resolving model in precipitation predictions across scales. 
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  5. Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into shallow marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation and reduce the amount of energy absorbed by the climate system. From the physical science perspective, the consensus of a broad international group of scientists is that the viability of MCB will ultimately depend on whether observations and models can robustly assess the scale-up of local-to-global brightening in today’s climate and identify strategies that will ensure an equitable geographical distribution of the benefits and risks associated with projected regional changes in temperature and precipitation. To address the physical science knowledge gaps required to assess the societal implications of MCB, we propose a substantial and targeted program of research—field and laboratory experiments, monitoring, and numerical modeling across a range of scales. 
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  6. Abstract For the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), an adjustment is needed to conserve dry air mass. This adjustment exposes an inconsistency in how CAM6’s energy budget incorporates water—in CAM6 water in the vapor phase has energy, but condensed phases of water do not. When water vapor condenses, only its latent energy is retained in the model, while its remaining internal, potential, and kinetic energy are lost. A global fixer is used in the default CAM6 model to maintain global energy conservation, but locally the energy tendency associated with water changing phase violates the divergence theorem. This error in energy tendency is intrinsically tied to the water vapor tendency, and reaches its highest values in regions of heavy rainfall, where the error can be as high as 40 W m −2 annually averaged. Several possible changes are outlined within this manuscript that would allow CAM6 to satisfy the divergence theorem locally. These fall into one of two categories: 1) modifying the surface flux to balance the local atmospheric energy tendency and 2) modifying the local atmospheric tendency to balance the surface plus top-of-atmosphere energy fluxes. To gauge which aspects of the simulated climate are most sensitive to this error, the simplest possible change—where condensed water still does not carry energy and a local energy fixer is used in place of the global one—is implemented within CAM6. Comparing this experiment with the default configuration of CAM6 reveals precipitation, particularly its variability, to be highly sensitive to the energy budget formulation. Significance Statement This study examines and explains spurious regional sources and sinks of energy in a widely used climate model. These energy errors result from not tracking energy associated with water after it transitions from the vapor phase to either liquid or ice. Instead, the model used a global fixer to offset the energy tendency related to the energy sources and sinks associated with condensed water species. We replace this global fixer with a local one to examine the model sensitivity to the regional energy error and find a large sensitivity in the simulated hydrologic cycle. This work suggests that the underlying thermodynamic assumptions in the model should be revisited to build confidence in the model-simulated regional-scale water and energy cycles. 
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  7. Abstract. Global climate models (GCMs) have advanced in many ways ascomputing power has allowed more complexity and finer resolutions. As GCMsreach storm-resolving scales, they need to be able to produce realisticprecipitation intensity, duration, and frequency at fine scales withconsideration of scale-aware parameterization. This study uses astate-of-the-art storm-resolving GCM with a nonhydrostatic dynamical core – theModel for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), incorporated in the atmosphericcomponent (Community Atmosphere Model, CAM) of the open-source CommunityEarth System Model (CESM), within the System for Integrated Modeling of theAtmosphere (SIMA) framework (referred to as SIMA-MPAS). At uniform coarse (here, at 120 km) gridresolution, the SIMA-MPAS configuration is comparable to the standardhydrostatic CESM (with a finite-volume (FV) dynamical core) with reasonableenergy and mass conservation on climatological timescales. With thecomparable energy and mass balance performance between CAM-FV (workhorse dynamical core) and SIMA-MPAS (newly developed dynamical core), it gives confidence inSIMA-MPAS's applications at a finer resolution. To evaluate this, we focuson how the SIMA-MPAS model performs when reaching a storm-resolving scale at3 km. To do this efficiently, we compose a case study using a SIMA-MPASvariable-resolution configuration with a refined mesh of 3 km covering thewestern USA and 60 km over the rest of the globe. We evaluated the modelperformance using satellite and station-based gridded observations withcomparison to a traditional regional climate model (WRF, the WeatherResearch and Forecasting model). Our results show realistic representationsof precipitation over the refined complex terrains temporally and spatially.Along with much improved near-surface temperature, realistic topography, andland–air interactions, we also demonstrate significantly enhanced snowpackdistributions. This work illustrates that the global SIMA-MPAS atstorm-resolving resolution can produce much more realistic regional climatevariability, fine-scale features, and extremes to advance both climate andweather studies. This next-generation storm-resolving model could ultimatelybridge large-scale forcing constraints and better inform climate impactsand weather predictions across scales. 
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